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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.53vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.60+4.57vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.09+5.53vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.44vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+5.21vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.48+0.87vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.97+1.81vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.95+0.81vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.19+2.94vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.97-0.95vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.82+2.33vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.60-1.37vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-7.04vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24-2.62vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.39-3.95vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.95-3.16vs Predicted
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17Cornell University3.14-8.75vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.26-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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6.57Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.53University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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10.21California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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6.87Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.81Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.81Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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11.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.190.0%1st Place
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9.05Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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13.33University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
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10.63Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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5.96Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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11.38Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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11.05Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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12.84Eckerd College1.950.0%1st Place
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8.25Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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14.8Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 16.3% | 16.8% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Dane Byerly | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Johannes McElvain | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Christian Filter | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Greta Farrell | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Magno | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 19.0% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 3.4% |
| Martim Anderson | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Frank Reeg | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Samuel Shannon | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Paul Hart | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 36.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.