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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.71+5.21vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.76vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.60+3.52vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.97+4.67vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.97+3.79vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.95+2.88vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+3.28vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.24+3.59vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.19+2.88vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.60+0.60vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.82+2.30vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.24-7.35vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.48-6.28vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.14-6.11vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.09-6.70vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.39-4.74vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.95-4.10vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.26-3.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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7.76St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.52Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.67Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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8.79Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University2.950.1%1st Place
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10.28California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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11.59Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.240.0%1st Place
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11.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.190.0%1st Place
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10.6Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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13.3University of Miami1.820.0%1st Place
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4.65Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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6.72Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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7.89Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Rhode Island3.090.1%1st Place
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11.26Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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12.9Eckerd College1.950.0%1st Place
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14.8Washington College1.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martim Anderson | 9.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Christian Filter | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Johannes McElvain | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Frank Reeg | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 7.0% |
| Greta Farrell | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 6.8% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Kyle Magno | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 18.9% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Dakota Northrup | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.8% |
| Samuel Shannon | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 13.5% |
| Paul Hart | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 35.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.