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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.25+5.89vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.93+6.17vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.20+4.02vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.23+2.68vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.75+3.56vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.52vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.60+2.29vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.52+1.49vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.91-1.07vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.43+0.25vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.14-3.79vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-0.39vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.08-1.75vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.80+1.28vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.82-2.66vs Predicted
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16California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-3.44vs Predicted
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17Brown University2.79-8.38vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.06-6.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.89Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.17University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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7.02Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.68Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.56Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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6.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.29Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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9.49Northeastern University2.520.1%1st Place
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7.93Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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10.25Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.21Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.61Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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11.25University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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15.28Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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12.34Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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12.56California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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8.62Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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11.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Lamphere | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Luke Ingalls | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Conner Harding | 10.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Matt Safford | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Sarah De Silva | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Josh Dochoda | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Bowen | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% |
| Max Thompson | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.4% |
| William Sunkler | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 46.1% |
| Samuel Peirson | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 10.8% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 11.7% |
| Sam Alexander | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Ryan Hennessey | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.