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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.14+6.32vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.91+6.24vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.23+3.91vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.75+4.57vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.52+4.52vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+0.57vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.93+0.89vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.25-1.41vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.60+0.23vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.20-2.86vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11+0.43vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.43-1.58vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.79-4.67vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.06-2.83vs Predicted
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15University of Miami2.08-3.68vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.82-3.51vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.80-1.41vs Predicted
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18California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-5.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.32Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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8.24Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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6.91Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.57Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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9.52Northeastern University2.520.1%1st Place
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6.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.89University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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6.59Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.23Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.14Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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11.43Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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10.42Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.33Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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11.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.060.0%1st Place
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11.32University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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12.49Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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15.59Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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12.29California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McCoy | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Dochoda | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Conner Harding | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Matt Safford | 6.5% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Sarah De Silva | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Luke Ingalls | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 9.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.7% |
| Phillip Schofield | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| Sam Alexander | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Hennessey | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| Max Thompson | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 5.4% |
| Samuel Peirson | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% |
| William Sunkler | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 49.7% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.