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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.20+6.12vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island2.93+6.17vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.72vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.14+2.97vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.25+1.68vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.75+2.63vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.23-0.24vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.79+0.42vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.91-1.04vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.43+0.26vs Predicted
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11University of Miami2.08+0.48vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.82+0.73vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.11-1.89vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.06-2.86vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.60-5.77vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.52-6.33vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-4.41vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.12Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.17University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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6.72St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.97Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.68Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.63Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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6.76Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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8.42Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.96Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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10.26Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.48University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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12.73Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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11.11Massachusetts Maritime Academy2.110.0%1st Place
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11.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.060.0%1st Place
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9.23Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.67Northeastern University2.520.0%1st Place
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12.59California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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15.36Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Luke Ingalls | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Matt Safford | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Conner Harding | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Sam Alexander | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Josh Dochoda | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 2.8% |
| Max Thompson | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 6.1% |
| Samuel Peirson | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 13.7% |
| Alexander Bowen | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 5.1% |
| Ryan Hennessey | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Sarah De Silva | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 12.3% |
| William Sunkler | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 46.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.