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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+5.70vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.23+4.79vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.20+3.92vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.25+2.50vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.08+6.11vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.43+3.87vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.60+2.12vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.93-0.30vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14-2.14vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.06+1.52vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.79-2.53vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.91-3.75vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.82-0.96vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.75-5.70vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.52-5.60vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-2.23vs Predicted
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17California Poly Maritime Academy1.81-4.54vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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6.79Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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6.92Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.5Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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11.11University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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9.87Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.12Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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6.86Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.060.0%1st Place
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8.47Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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8.25Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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12.04Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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8.3Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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9.4Northeastern University2.520.0%1st Place
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13.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
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12.46California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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15.24Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Conner Harding | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 11.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Max Thompson | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.6% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Luke Ingalls | 7.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Hennessey | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 5.5% |
| Sam Alexander | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Josh Dochoda | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Peirson | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 8.4% |
| Matt Safford | 6.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Sarah De Silva | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Christos Karplus | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 20.8% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 9.6% |
| William Sunkler | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 16.7% | 41.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.