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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.20+5.99vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.25+4.72vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+3.59vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island2.93+3.71vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.79+3.26vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.23+0.65vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.60+2.10vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.14-1.09vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.82+3.22vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.91-1.79vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.75-2.37vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.81+0.60vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.06-1.90vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.52-4.85vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.43-5.23vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.40-2.22vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.08-5.65vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.80-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.99Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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6.72Yale University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.59St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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7.71University of Rhode Island2.930.1%1st Place
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8.26Brown University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.65Roger Williams University3.230.1%1st Place
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9.1Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.91Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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12.22Eckerd College1.820.0%1st Place
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8.21Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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8.63Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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12.6California Poly Maritime Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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11.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.060.0%1st Place
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9.15Northeastern University2.520.1%1st Place
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9.77Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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13.78Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.400.0%1st Place
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11.35University of Miami2.080.0%1st Place
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15.25Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Malcolm Lamphere | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Liam McCarthy | 9.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Luke Ingalls | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Sam Alexander | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Conner Harding | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Peirson | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Josh Dochoda | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Matt Safford | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Rohr | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 15.3% | 11.1% |
| Ryan Hennessey | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 4.6% |
| Sarah De Silva | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Phillip Schofield | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Christos Karplus | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 20.5% |
| Max Thompson | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 5.4% |
| William Sunkler | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 17.3% | 42.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.