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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.27+6.75vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.17+6.13vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.67vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.19+4.03vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.65+5.47vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University3.84+3.75vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.25+1.10vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.33-0.73vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.93+0.12vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.61+0.80vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.69-0.56vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.49-0.51vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont3.62-1.97vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.60-3.17vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.53+0.17vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin3.31-3.94vs Predicted
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17University of Washington2.13-0.43vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy4.16-9.70vs Predicted
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19Tufts University3.56-8.07vs Predicted
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20Stanford University2.90-5.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75St. Mary's College of Maryland4.270.1%1st Place
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8.13Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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9.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.03Yale University4.190.1%1st Place
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10.47Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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9.75Salve Regina University3.840.0%1st Place
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8.1Brown University4.250.1%1st Place
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7.27Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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9.12College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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10.8Old Dominion University3.610.0%1st Place
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10.44University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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11.49University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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11.03University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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10.83SUNY Maritime College3.600.0%1st Place
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15.17Boston University2.530.0%1st Place
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12.06University of Wisconsin3.310.0%1st Place
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16.57University of Washington2.130.0%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Naval Academy4.160.1%1st Place
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10.93Tufts University3.560.0%1st Place
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14.09Stanford University2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Kirkland | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| John Stokes | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Austen Anderson | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Morris | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Clancy | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| William Brown | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Scott Furnary | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Alan Alkins | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| David Hernandez | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Will Stocke | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| Harry Scott | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Mathew Renik | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 23.5% |
| Leif Evensen | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 4.3% |
| Bradley Sainsbury | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 16.9% | 37.8% |
| Martin Sterling | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 11.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.