← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University1.79+8.01vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University2.89+2.66vs Predicted
-
3Yale University2.85+2.35vs Predicted
-
4Harvard University2.45+2.43vs Predicted
-
5University of Pennsylvania2.16+3.27vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University1.44+5.13vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University2.09+1.19vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+1.87vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University1.54+1.76vs Predicted
-
10University of Michigan1.64-0.25vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Naval Academy2.57-4.25vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College0.50+1.75vs Predicted
-
13Tulane University1.84-4.19vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07-2.36vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.01vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University1.59-6.15vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-4.60vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.01Cornell University1.795.0%1st Place
-
4.66Stanford University2.8916.8%1st Place
-
5.35Yale University2.8513.7%1st Place
-
6.43Harvard University2.459.4%1st Place
-
8.27University of Pennsylvania2.165.8%1st Place
-
11.13George Washington University1.442.4%1st Place
-
8.19Roger Williams University2.096.3%1st Place
-
9.87St. Mary's College of Maryland1.685.0%1st Place
-
10.76Fordham University1.542.6%1st Place
-
9.75University of Michigan1.644.2%1st Place
-
6.75U. S. Naval Academy2.577.5%1st Place
-
13.75SUNY Maritime College0.501.7%1st Place
-
8.81Tulane University1.845.7%1st Place
-
11.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.072.5%1st Place
-
8.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.0%1st Place
-
9.85Old Dominion University1.594.3%1st Place
-
12.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.8%1st Place
-
15.39University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Reade Decker | 16.8% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.7% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Robby Meek | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Henry Allgeier | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 17.9% | 20.2% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 10.7% |
| David Spector | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 45.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.