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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.16+7.19vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+3.44vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.89+1.72vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.57+2.68vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+4.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+6.39vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.45-0.62vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54+2.78vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.79+0.07vs Predicted
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10Tulane University1.84-1.31vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.64-1.13vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.44-0.99vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.09-4.72vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07-2.41vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.50-1.02vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-6.21vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.59-7.34vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.19University of Pennsylvania2.166.3%1st Place
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5.44Yale University2.8513.5%1st Place
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4.72Stanford University2.8915.4%1st Place
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6.68U. S. Naval Academy2.579.2%1st Place
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9.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.9%1st Place
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12.39U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.5%1st Place
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6.38Harvard University2.459.4%1st Place
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10.78Fordham University1.543.6%1st Place
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9.07Cornell University1.795.3%1st Place
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8.69Tulane University1.845.2%1st Place
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9.87University of Michigan1.644.0%1st Place
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11.01George Washington University1.443.2%1st Place
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8.28Roger Williams University2.095.7%1st Place
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11.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.072.7%1st Place
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13.98SUNY Maritime College0.501.2%1st Place
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9.79St. Mary's College of Maryland1.684.2%1st Place
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9.66Old Dominion University1.594.1%1st Place
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15.3University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.5% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 15.4% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 9.8% |
| Robby Meek | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 6.3% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 18.2% | 23.6% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| David Spector | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 43.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.