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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.57+4.84vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.45+3.34vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+8.42vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.79+4.04vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+3.08vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+1.37vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.59+1.94vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+0.79vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64-0.33vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.16-2.78vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.06-3.82vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.54-2.08vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.50-0.39vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.03+0.36vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07-4.26vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.89-12.29vs Predicted
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18George Washington University1.44-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.62Yale University2.8511.9%1st Place
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6.84U. S. Naval Academy2.579.2%1st Place
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6.34Harvard University2.4510.0%1st Place
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12.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.2%1st Place
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9.04Cornell University1.794.7%1st Place
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9.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.7%1st Place
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8.37Roger Williams University2.095.6%1st Place
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9.94Old Dominion University1.594.0%1st Place
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9.79St. Mary's College of Maryland1.684.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Michigan1.644.2%1st Place
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8.22University of Pennsylvania2.165.9%1st Place
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8.18Tulane University2.066.6%1st Place
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10.92Fordham University1.542.4%1st Place
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13.61SUNY Maritime College0.501.5%1st Place
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15.36University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.7%1st Place
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11.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.072.9%1st Place
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4.71Stanford University2.8916.7%1st Place
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11.15George Washington University1.443.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 11.9% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Robby Meek | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 10.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Zander King | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| David Spector | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 44.2% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| Reade Decker | 16.7% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.