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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.24+3.77vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.71+4.62vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+3.43vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.70+6.55vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.53+2.18vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.60+1.27vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+0.11vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.95+4.79vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.16-0.07vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.24-1.74vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida2.73-0.44vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+1.65vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.43-1.35vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College3.56-6.68vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-4.59vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.24-7.51vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook2.59-6.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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6.62Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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6.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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7.18Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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7.27Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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12.79Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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8.93Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.26Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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10.56University of South Florida2.730.0%1st Place
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13.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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11.65Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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7.32Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.41University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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8.49Tufts University3.240.0%1st Place
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11.0SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Baird | 16.6% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Nick Sertl | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Charles Miller | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Mark Davies | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 18.1% | 22.3% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Sarah Streater | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 5.8% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 15.9% | 33.6% |
| Thomas Balk | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 9.9% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sterling Henken | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Cameron Holley | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.