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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+5.91vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+6.70vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.71+3.68vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.24+0.97vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.43+6.30vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.70+4.77vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.53+0.35vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.23vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.60-1.81vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-3.71vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.24-2.38vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.24-3.65vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.56-5.72vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.95-0.78vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida2.73-4.56vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook2.59-5.02vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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6.68Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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4.97Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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11.3Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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7.35Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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7.19Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.62Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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8.35Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.28Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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13.22Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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10.44University of South Florida2.730.0%1st Place
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10.98SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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13.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Martim Anderson | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.3% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.0% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Sterling Henken | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 9.0% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Mark Davies | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 18.8% | 24.3% |
| Sarah Streater | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.5% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 33.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.