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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.56vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.57+4.96vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.45+3.42vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.89+0.77vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.16+3.26vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.59+3.67vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+1.20vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+4.55vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.79+0.22vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.44+0.86vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07+0.79vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.06-3.77vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-3.95vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.64-4.17vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-5.40vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.54-5.17vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College0.50-3.11vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.56Yale University2.8513.5%1st Place
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6.96U. S. Naval Academy2.578.2%1st Place
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6.42Harvard University2.459.5%1st Place
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4.77Stanford University2.8915.3%1st Place
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8.26University of Pennsylvania2.166.3%1st Place
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9.67Old Dominion University1.594.7%1st Place
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8.2Roger Williams University2.097.0%1st Place
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12.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.4%1st Place
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9.22Cornell University1.794.2%1st Place
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10.86George Washington University1.442.8%1st Place
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11.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.071.9%1st Place
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8.23Tulane University2.065.2%1st Place
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9.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.2%1st Place
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9.83University of Michigan1.643.6%1st Place
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9.6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.685.2%1st Place
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10.83Fordham University1.542.9%1st Place
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13.89SUNY Maritime College0.501.4%1st Place
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15.3University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 13.5% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Robby Meek | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 15.3% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 10.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 6.5% |
| Zander King | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 13.1% | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| David Spector | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 45.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.