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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.95+11.80vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.24+6.42vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.60+4.05vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+3.20vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+2.04vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.16+2.97vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.53+0.30vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+5.38vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook2.59+2.14vs Predicted
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10Yale University4.24-5.25vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.24-2.43vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.73-1.58vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.71-6.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-3.42vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.70-4.45vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-9.52vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.43-5.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.8Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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8.42Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.05Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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7.04Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.97Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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7.3Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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13.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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11.14SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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4.75Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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8.57Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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10.42University of South Florida2.730.0%1st Place
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6.76Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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6.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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11.59Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Davies | 2.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 25.1% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Charles Miller | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 1.5% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 31.2% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.1% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ravi Parent | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Sarah Streater | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Martim Anderson | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sterling Henken | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 5.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.