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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+8.90vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+4.88vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida2.73+7.09vs Predicted
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4Fordham University3.16+4.72vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.24+3.28vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.53+1.28vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-0.54vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.56-1.12vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.71-2.51vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.43+1.21vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook2.59-0.49vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.60-5.06vs Predicted
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13Boston University3.24-4.82vs Predicted
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14Yale University4.24-9.31vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.70-4.71vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.9University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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6.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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10.09University of South Florida2.730.0%1st Place
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8.72Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.28Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.28Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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6.46Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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6.88Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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6.49Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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11.21Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.51SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
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6.94Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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8.18Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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4.69Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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10.29University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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13.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 7.0% |
| Charles Miller | 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Sarah Streater | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Ty Ingram | 10.2% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| Martim Anderson | 9.2% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 15.3% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 11.6% |
| Nick Sertl | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Baird | 15.5% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 7.7% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 9.6% | 16.8% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.