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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+5.85vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+2.76vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+3.31vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.71+2.64vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida2.73+5.19vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.53+1.24vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.24+1.35vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.95vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.43+2.04vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.24-1.72vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.70-0.82vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.16-3.49vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+0.10vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.60-7.21vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.56-7.88vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook2.59-5.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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4.76Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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6.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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6.64Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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10.19University of South Florida2.730.0%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.35Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.0%1st Place
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11.04Cornell University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.28Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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10.18University of Vermont2.700.0%1st Place
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8.51Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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13.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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6.79Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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7.12Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.68SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Baird | 16.9% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ty Ingram | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Sarah Streater | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 7.2% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| Sterling Henken | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Ravi Parent | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Jan Kite-Powell | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.6% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Caelan Juckniess | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 38.8% |
| Nick Sertl | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.