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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.09+7.39vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.59+7.74vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+2.68vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.45+2.24vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.57+1.79vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.79+3.13vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.16+1.17vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.89-3.35vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.64+0.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+2.68vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.09vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.06-3.80vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07-1.36vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.44-3.04vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-5.14vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.50-2.10vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.54-5.93vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.39Roger Williams University2.095.2%1st Place
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9.74Old Dominion University1.594.0%1st Place
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5.68Yale University2.8512.3%1st Place
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6.24Harvard University2.4510.9%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Naval Academy2.577.9%1st Place
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9.13Cornell University1.795.2%1st Place
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8.17University of Pennsylvania2.166.0%1st Place
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4.65Stanford University2.8916.6%1st Place
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9.75University of Michigan1.644.0%1st Place
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12.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.7%1st Place
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8.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.0%1st Place
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8.2Tulane University2.066.0%1st Place
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11.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.072.4%1st Place
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10.96George Washington University1.443.5%1st Place
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9.86St. Mary's College of Maryland1.684.3%1st Place
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13.9SUNY Maritime College0.501.8%1st Place
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11.07Fordham University1.542.5%1st Place
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15.25University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Robby Meek | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Reade Decker | 16.6% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Zander King | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| David Vinogradov | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| Lucas Thress | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| David Spector | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 15.3% | 44.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.