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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.32vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.16+5.98vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.57+3.75vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.44+6.75vs Predicted
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5Tulane University1.84+3.41vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan1.64+3.73vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+1.20vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.54+2.66vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.27+6.66vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.59-0.43vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.16vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.45-5.86vs Predicted
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13Stanford University2.89-8.50vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78-1.49vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.03+0.14vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-6.30vs Predicted
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17Cornell University1.79-8.10vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-5.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32Yale University2.8512.2%1st Place
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7.98University of Pennsylvania2.165.8%1st Place
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6.75U. S. Naval Academy2.578.9%1st Place
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10.75George Washington University1.442.9%1st Place
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8.41Tulane University1.845.3%1st Place
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9.73University of Michigan1.644.0%1st Place
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8.2Roger Williams University2.095.5%1st Place
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10.66Fordham University1.543.7%1st Place
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15.66SUNY Maritime College-0.270.2%1st Place
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9.57Old Dominion University1.593.6%1st Place
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8.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.0%1st Place
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6.14Harvard University2.4510.5%1st Place
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4.5Stanford University2.8917.9%1st Place
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12.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.781.7%1st Place
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15.14University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.9%1st Place
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9.7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.684.4%1st Place
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8.9Cornell University1.795.0%1st Place
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12.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 12.2% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Henry Allgeier | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 9.5% | 18.8% | 43.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Robby Meek | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 17.9% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 7.0% |
| David Spector | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 11.0% | 22.8% | 32.5% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Sophia Devling | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.