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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.65vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+6.78vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.44+7.82vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.45+2.28vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.89-0.41vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.57+0.74vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.16+0.97vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+1.52vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.09-1.01vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64-0.38vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+1.27vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.84-3.29vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.79-4.09vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78-1.52vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.59-5.56vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.27-0.38vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.54-6.50vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Yale University2.8511.9%1st Place
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8.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.7%1st Place
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10.82George Washington University1.442.5%1st Place
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6.28Harvard University2.4510.4%1st Place
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4.59Stanford University2.8916.7%1st Place
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6.74U. S. Naval Academy2.579.0%1st Place
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7.97University of Pennsylvania2.166.8%1st Place
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9.52St. Mary's College of Maryland1.683.8%1st Place
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7.99Roger Williams University2.095.9%1st Place
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9.62University of Michigan1.644.6%1st Place
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12.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.991.8%1st Place
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8.71Tulane University1.845.1%1st Place
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8.91Cornell University1.794.9%1st Place
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12.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.781.6%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University1.594.1%1st Place
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15.62SUNY Maritime College-0.270.5%1st Place
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10.5Fordham University1.543.9%1st Place
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15.1University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| Robby Meek | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 16.7% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Allgeier | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 6.3% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Sophia Devling | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Joey Richardson | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 8.6% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 21.1% | 42.4% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 1.8% |
| David Spector | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 22.0% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.