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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.61+11.87vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.45+4.22vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+9.06vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.59+5.37vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.57+1.42vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+3.22vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.62vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.89-3.57vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.64+0.34vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.16-2.41vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.84-2.79vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.85-6.76vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.27+2.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.03+0.90vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.09-7.16vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.44-5.48vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.54-6.66vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.78-5.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.87Cornell University0.611.7%1st Place
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6.22Harvard University2.4510.1%1st Place
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12.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.3%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University1.594.2%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Naval Academy2.579.4%1st Place
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9.22St. Mary's College of Maryland1.683.6%1st Place
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8.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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4.43Stanford University2.8916.8%1st Place
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9.34University of Michigan1.643.8%1st Place
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7.59University of Pennsylvania2.167.3%1st Place
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8.21Tulane University1.844.5%1st Place
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5.24Yale University2.8513.7%1st Place
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15.46SUNY Maritime College-0.270.8%1st Place
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14.9University of California at Los Angeles-0.030.9%1st Place
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7.84Roger Williams University2.096.8%1st Place
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10.52George Washington University1.443.4%1st Place
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10.34Fordham University1.543.3%1st Place
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12.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.782.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya Conway | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 10.2% |
| Robby Meek | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 5.9% |
| Diogo Silva | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Henry Allgeier | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Jensen | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Reade Decker | 16.8% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.7% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 19.1% | 40.8% |
| David Spector | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 21.0% | 29.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| Joey Richardson | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.