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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+7.40vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.57+4.44vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.16+4.53vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.89+0.36vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85+0.40vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+3.39vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.45-1.09vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.09-0.19vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.59+0.21vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.64-0.74vs Predicted
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11Tulane University1.84-2.89vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+0.01vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.07-1.68vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.44-3.69vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.27+0.63vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.03-1.26vs Predicted
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17Fordham University0.69-4.60vs Predicted
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18Cornell University0.61-5.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.775.1%1st Place
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6.44U. S. Naval Academy2.579.7%1st Place
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7.53University of Pennsylvania2.166.7%1st Place
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4.36Stanford University2.8917.5%1st Place
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5.4Yale University2.8512.8%1st Place
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9.39St. Mary's College of Maryland1.684.1%1st Place
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5.91Harvard University2.4510.4%1st Place
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7.81Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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9.21Old Dominion University1.595.0%1st Place
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9.26University of Michigan1.644.2%1st Place
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8.11Tulane University1.846.6%1st Place
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12.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.992.1%1st Place
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11.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.071.8%1st Place
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10.31George Washington University1.443.1%1st Place
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15.63SUNY Maritime College-0.270.5%1st Place
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14.74University of California at Los Angeles-0.031.0%1st Place
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12.4Fordham University0.691.5%1st Place
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12.78Cornell University0.611.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Henry Allgeier | 9.7% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 17.5% | 17.3% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.8% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Robby Meek | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Diogo Silva | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Braden Vogel | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Matheo Graham-capasso | 6.6% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 4.8% |
| David Vinogradov | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 41.4% |
| David Spector | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 19.2% | 29.1% |
| James Owen | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 6.9% |
| Maya Conway | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 9.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.