Race 1A

dave-perry

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
William Hutchings 13.2% 15.2% 15.5% 13.4% 14.6% 13.2% 8.0% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Rob Struckett 13.2% 13.0% 15.3% 13.7% 13.5% 11.0% 9.5% 6.8% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Mark Towill 27.8% 24.4% 17.6% 12.1% 9.5% 5.1% 2.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Andrew Meleny 8.9% 9.3% 9.6% 11.8% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0% 9.6% 6.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Max Rollins 7.6% 8.4% 9.2% 10.8% 11.3% 12.3% 14.3% 13.1% 9.3% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Quentin Chafee 12.3% 11.5% 13.5% 12.8% 13.5% 12.8% 11.0% 6.7% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Tripp Cashel 10.5% 11.7% 11.3% 13.3% 11.1% 13.0% 12.5% 9.3% 4.9% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Bryan Lilley 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 4.6% 4.7% 6.6% 11.0% 16.0% 20.8% 21.0% 9.0% 0.0%
William Hutchings 13.2% 15.2% 15.5% 13.4% 14.6% 13.2% 8.0% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathan Stevens 2.6% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% 4.1% 6.2% 10.5% 19.9% 22.2% 15.7% 7.4% 0.0%
Natalie Fohl 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 3.3% 3.7% 7.6% 14.2% 28.4% 36.5% 0.0%
Dylan Keegan 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% 3.2% 5.1% 12.3% 25.4% 46.1% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.