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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.09+5.30vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+7.35vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.63+5.36vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+6.19vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.33vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41+3.21vs Predicted
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7Cornell University3.14+3.68vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.81-0.78vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.88+6.66vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.74-2.22vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-1.22vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.18vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.50-3.89vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.48-0.74vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.51-1.91vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.58+0.51vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.80-5.21vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida3.59-9.48vs Predicted
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19Eckerd College2.72-6.81vs Predicted
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20Fordham University2.71-7.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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10.19U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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6.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.21George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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10.68Cornell University3.140.0%1st Place
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7.22Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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15.66Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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7.78Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.78St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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12.18University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.11Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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13.26Tufts University2.480.0%1st Place
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13.09Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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16.51University of Wisconsin1.580.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Vermont2.800.0%1st Place
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8.52University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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12.19Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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12.49Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Peschiera | 12.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.8% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Mack Fox | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Clark Uhl | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 17.6% | 23.2% |
| Will La Dow | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Dane Byerly | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Julien Guiot | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Reed Lorimer | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
| Noah Janssen | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 16.2% | 37.5% |
| Thomas Harden | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Sean Cornell | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
| Matt Cappetta | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.