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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+5.32vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.74+5.74vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+6.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.63+4.23vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.48+8.22vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.71+6.41vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida3.59+1.72vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.50+0.59vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.41+0.11vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+0.12vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston4.09-4.54vs Predicted
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12Cornell University3.14-1.40vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.88+2.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39-4.74vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University3.81-7.55vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont2.80-4.02vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.80-5.22vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College2.72-5.64vs Predicted
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19Boston University2.51-5.85vs Predicted
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20University of Wisconsin1.58-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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7.74Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.94St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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13.22Tufts University2.480.0%1st Place
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12.41Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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8.72University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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9.11George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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6.46College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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10.6Cornell University3.140.0%1st Place
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15.88Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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9.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.0%1st Place
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7.45Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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11.98University of Vermont2.800.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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12.36Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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13.15Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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16.69University of Wisconsin1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will La Dow | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Dane Byerly | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Julien Guiot | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 6.1% |
| Matt Cappetta | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Sean Cornell | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Mack Fox | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 18.1% | 27.3% |
| Charles Lomax | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Harden | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% |
| Reed Lorimer | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| Noah Janssen | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 37.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.