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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of South Florida3.59+7.56vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+4.49vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.41+6.56vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+6.00vs Predicted
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5Cornell University3.14+5.48vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.81+1.67vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.80vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+2.10vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.74-1.25vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.50-1.01vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.63-2.51vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.51+1.61vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston4.09-6.22vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.71-1.45vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.46-1.48vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.48-2.50vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.72-4.72vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.12-7.14vs Predicted
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19University of Vermont2.80-6.83vs Predicted
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20University of Wisconsin1.58-3.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.56University of South Florida3.590.1%1st Place
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6.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.1%1st Place
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9.56George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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10.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.0%1st Place
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10.48Cornell University3.140.0%1st Place
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7.67Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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10.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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7.75Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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8.99Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.49U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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13.61Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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6.78College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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12.55Fordham University2.710.0%1st Place
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13.52Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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13.5Tufts University2.480.0%1st Place
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12.28Eckerd College2.720.0%1st Place
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10.86University of Pennsylvania3.120.0%1st Place
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12.17University of Vermont2.800.0%1st Place
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16.85University of Wisconsin1.580.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Cornell | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Dane Byerly | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Clark Uhl | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Charles Lomax | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Mack Fox | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Will La Dow | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Reed Lorimer | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 8.9% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Cappetta | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% |
| Telmo Basterra | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.5% |
| Julien Guiot | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Karl Rasmus Sayre | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Thomas Harden | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% |
| Noah Janssen | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 42.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.