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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.90vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+7.08vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+4.74vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.06+4.36vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.56+1.24vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University3.43+0.82vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59+3.81vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.96+0.58vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.95+4.26vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.64+0.25vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.32+0.76vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.40-0.37vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston2.58-2.15vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.27-2.09vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.74-0.96vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.72-6.18vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.51-6.37vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.86-4.20vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin0.72-1.62vs Predicted
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20U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.70-9.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.08Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.74U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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8.36Georgetown University3.060.1%1st Place
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6.24Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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6.82Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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10.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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8.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.960.1%1st Place
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13.26Eckerd College1.950.0%1st Place
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10.25University of South Florida2.640.0%1st Place
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11.76Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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11.63Fordham University2.400.0%1st Place
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10.85College of Charleston2.580.0%1st Place
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11.91Cornell University2.270.0%1st Place
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14.04University of Vermont1.740.0%1st Place
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9.82George Washington University2.720.0%1st Place
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10.63Boston University2.510.0%1st Place
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13.8University of Pennsylvania1.860.0%1st Place
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17.38University of Wisconsin0.720.0%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Peter Hogan | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Romain Screve | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Edmund Cooper | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Shannon | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 7.7% |
| Brendan Feeney | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Samuel Shea | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 2.5% |
| Tucker Hersam | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| Dirk Johnson | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 3.8% |
| Peter Schneider | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 11.5% |
| Andrew Sheerin | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Alex Moreno | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Tanner Probst | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 9.9% |
| Tye Rubin | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 51.4% |
| Shane Riera | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.