← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+5.74vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy3.17+4.81vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University2.29+7.44vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+4.57vs Predicted
-
5Tufts University2.82+3.35vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University2.73+2.42vs Predicted
-
7College of Charleston3.43-1.17vs Predicted
-
8University of Vermont1.80+4.66vs Predicted
-
9Jacksonville University2.53+0.16vs Predicted
-
10University of South Florida2.25+0.50vs Predicted
-
11University of Pennsylvania1.87+1.19vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-1.41vs Predicted
-
13Boston University3.49-7.64vs Predicted
-
14Fordham University1.68-0.98vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University2.55-5.83vs Predicted
-
16Cornell University1.45-2.25vs Predicted
-
17George Washington University2.32-6.85vs Predicted
-
18Eckerd College1.68-5.20vs Predicted
-
19University of Wisconsin0.84-3.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
-
6.81U. S. Naval Academy3.170.1%1st Place
-
10.44Georgetown University2.290.0%1st Place
-
8.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
-
8.35Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
-
8.42Stanford University2.730.1%1st Place
-
5.83College of Charleston3.430.1%1st Place
-
12.66University of Vermont1.800.0%1st Place
-
9.16Jacksonville University2.530.1%1st Place
-
10.5University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
-
12.19University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
-
10.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.0%1st Place
-
5.36Boston University3.490.1%1st Place
-
13.02Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
-
9.17Old Dominion University2.550.1%1st Place
-
13.75Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
-
10.15George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
-
12.8Eckerd College1.680.0%1st Place
-
15.48University of Wisconsin0.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Maximilian Guerriero | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Clay Broussard | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Michael Munger | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jack Bitney | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Luke Muller | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Gerald Williams | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Hicks | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| Jack Gower | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Jensen McTighe | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Keen Butcher | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 5.7% |
| Joshua Paper | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Javier De urdanibia panos | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Cooper | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% |
| James Jacob | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Tom O'Shea | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 15.0% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Matthew Peterson | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% |
| Thomas Kelly | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.