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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16+5.47vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida2.25+8.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.13+7.84vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.73+4.19vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.32+5.19vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.82+1.78vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.43-1.46vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.53+1.25vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.17-2.71vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.87+1.80vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.84+4.68vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32-1.69vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-5.00vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.80-1.69vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.45-1.64vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University2.29-6.10vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.55-8.05vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College1.68-5.40vs Predicted
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19Fordham University1.68-6.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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10.31University of South Florida2.250.0%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.130.0%1st Place
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8.19Stanford University2.730.1%1st Place
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10.19George Washington University2.320.0%1st Place
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7.78Tufts University2.820.1%1st Place
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5.54College of Charleston3.430.1%1st Place
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9.25Jacksonville University2.530.1%1st Place
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6.29U. S. Naval Academy3.170.1%1st Place
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11.8University of Pennsylvania1.870.0%1st Place
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15.68University of Wisconsin0.840.0%1st Place
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10.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.0%1st Place
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8.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.1%1st Place
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12.31University of Vermont1.800.0%1st Place
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13.36Cornell University1.450.0%1st Place
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9.9Georgetown University2.290.0%1st Place
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8.95Old Dominion University2.550.1%1st Place
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12.6Eckerd College1.680.0%1st Place
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12.23Fordham University1.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrson Pearce | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jensen McTighe | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Richie Gordon | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| Luke Muller | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Wade Wagner | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| Jack Bitney | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Gerald Williams | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Gower | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Maximilian Guerriero | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Keen Butcher | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Kelly | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 14.5% | 38.1% |
| Joshua Paper | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Michael Munger | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Charles Hicks | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 6.5% |
| Tom O'Shea | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 16.4% |
| Clay Broussard | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| James Jacob | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Peterson | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Thomas Cooper | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.