Race 1B

central-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Marshall McCraw 50.3% 27.9% 14.5% 5.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sean Linden 16.2% 23.6% 26.0% 21.1% 8.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joshua Paper 19.7% 28.9% 23.7% 18.4% 6.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Paul Hart 6.7% 10.2% 16.9% 24.3% 22.2% 11.6% 4.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Malte Londschien 0.7% 0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 8.3% 9.8% 10.5% 11.6% 10.4% 11.1% 11.3% 9.9% 7.9% 2.4%
Ryan Howard 0.5% 1.0% 2.4% 3.8% 6.1% 10.9% 10.9% 12.2% 12.0% 11.1% 10.1% 8.8% 7.9% 2.3%
Elizabeth Jarvie 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 5.4% 11.3% 11.3% 12.6% 11.9% 10.9% 10.7% 9.5% 7.1% 3.2% 0.8%
Katherine Foley 1.1% 0.8% 2.7% 4.4% 9.5% 8.7% 10.2% 12.7% 11.3% 10.4% 9.3% 8.3% 7.8% 2.8%
Cala Coffman 0.4% 1.1% 2.2% 1.7% 4.1% 6.8% 8.1% 7.8% 11.0% 12.3% 14.9% 14.0% 10.1% 5.5%
Peter Wiley 1.0% 0.7% 2.2% 3.0% 5.4% 10.7% 11.6% 11.6% 11.1% 10.1% 11.3% 11.9% 6.2% 3.2%
Andrew Houghton 0.9% 1.2% 2.7% 4.1% 7.9% 10.4% 12.7% 10.9% 12.4% 11.4% 9.8% 8.0% 5.5% 2.1%
Angelina Graham 0.6% 1.0% 1.3% 3.6% 5.5% 10.2% 11.2% 10.6% 11.3% 11.2% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 3.8%
Lauren Lee 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.9% 4.5% 5.2% 7.5% 11.6% 22.4% 35.1%
james Trontell 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 3.1% 4.2% 4.2% 6.0% 6.2% 10.5% 19.1% 42.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.