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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.62vs Predicted
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2Fordham University2.07+4.77vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.16+3.60vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-0.21vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.15+4.78vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.93-1.59vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+0.61vs Predicted
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8Hampton University2.26-1.81vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute0.81+2.21vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.82+0.94vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.44-1.93vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.06-1.74vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.95-2.30vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-3.44vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-1.32+0.63vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.40-6.90vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-1.32-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.62U. S. Naval Academy2.760.2%1st Place
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6.77Fordham University2.070.1%1st Place
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6.6Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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3.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.2%1st Place
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9.78Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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4.41Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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6.19Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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11.21Webb Institute0.810.0%1st Place
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10.94Christopher Newport University0.820.0%1st Place
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9.07SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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10.26University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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10.7SUNY Maritime College0.950.0%1st Place
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10.56Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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15.63Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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9.1Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
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15.75Syracuse University-1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Madigan | 16.0% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Johnsen | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Kelleher | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 20.5% | 18.5% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Person | 14.3% | 16.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Hunt | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.0% |
| Ian O'Connell | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Molesky | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Joseph Egan | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Ellis | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Alfano | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 31.7% | 46.7% |
| Eamonn Austin | 3.1% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Emmet Raichle | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 32.0% | 47.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.