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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.94vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University2.31+4.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.84+4.97vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.15+6.23vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-1.11vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.93-1.35vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.95+3.92vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.40+1.30vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.06+1.72vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.16-3.10vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-0.12vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.07-4.81vs Predicted
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13Hampton University2.26-6.34vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.44-4.51vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-1.32+0.68vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute0.81-4.58vs Predicted
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17Syracuse University-1.32-1.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.94U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.31Christopher Newport University2.310.1%1st Place
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7.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.840.1%1st Place
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10.23Cornell University1.150.0%1st Place
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3.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.2%1st Place
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4.65Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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10.92SUNY Maritime College0.950.0%1st Place
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9.3Fordham University1.400.0%1st Place
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10.72University of Pennsylvania1.060.0%1st Place
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6.9Georgetown University2.160.1%1st Place
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10.88Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.19Fordham University2.070.1%1st Place
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6.66Hampton University2.260.1%1st Place
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9.49SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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15.68Columbia University-1.320.0%1st Place
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11.42Webb Institute0.810.0%1st Place
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15.85Syracuse University-1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Madigan | 14.0% | 14.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kieran Cullen | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Kyle Easton | 19.9% | 18.4% | 17.0% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Person | 14.3% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Ellis | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 5.1% | 1.0% |
| Eamonn Austin | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Egan | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 5.2% | 0.7% |
| Noah Kelleher | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Alfano | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 6.1% | 1.3% |
| Sam Johnsen | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luca Taglialegne | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Molesky | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Charles Johnson | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 32.7% | 47.3% |
| Ben Hunt | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 7.8% | 1.4% |
| Emmet Raichle | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 34.2% | 47.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.