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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.73+5.95vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.76+2.19vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.11+2.92vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+1.43vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.56-0.10vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.91+0.58vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.44-1.93vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.25-2.40vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.33-3.66vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.76-0.24vs Predicted
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11Drexel University-0.16+0.85vs Predicted
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12Queen's University0.17-0.66vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia0.39-2.28vs Predicted
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14Columbia University-0.69-1.17vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-1.17-1.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95Fordham University1.730.1%1st Place
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4.19George Washington University2.760.2%1st Place
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5.92Cornell University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.43St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.1%1st Place
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4.9U. S. Naval Academy2.560.1%1st Place
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6.58Old Dominion University1.910.1%1st Place
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5.07University of Pennsylvania2.440.1%1st Place
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5.6Georgetown University2.250.1%1st Place
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5.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.330.1%1st Place
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9.76Christopher Newport University0.760.0%1st Place
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11.85Drexel University-0.160.0%1st Place
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11.34Queen's University0.170.0%1st Place
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10.72University of Virginia0.390.0%1st Place
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12.83Columbia University-0.690.0%1st Place
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13.53SUNY Stony Brook-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Leclue | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Riley Legault | 17.2% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Ungar | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brittney Slook | 12.8% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Esquier | 12.6% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marley Mais | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Cox | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kaitlyn Reilly | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Haley Clemson | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 19.6% | 19.3% | 13.6% |
| Christina Black | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 18.3% | 19.7% | 15.8% | 6.3% |
| Colleen Roney | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 18.2% | 16.1% | 11.1% | 4.4% |
| Bailey Fryer | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 16.4% | 26.1% | 26.0% |
| Natalie Cotroneo | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 20.7% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.