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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.95+2.96vs Predicted
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2Oregon State University0.21+3.40vs Predicted
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3University of Washington1.530.00vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University1.03-0.10vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.24+0.37vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon0.32-0.89vs Predicted
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7University of Washington1.53-3.92vs Predicted
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8Oregon State University-0.31-1.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.96University of Washington0.950.1%1st Place
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5.4Oregon State University0.210.1%1st Place
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3.0University of Washington1.530.3%1st Place
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3.9Western Washington University1.030.1%1st Place
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5.37Western Washington University0.240.1%1st Place
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5.11University of Oregon0.320.1%1st Place
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3.08University of Washington1.530.2%1st Place
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6.18Oregon State University-0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Hughes | 13.6% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 4.7% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 20.1% | 19.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 25.1% | 21.2% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Dillon Kilroy | 13.1% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% |
| Carter Erickson | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 21.4% | 17.8% |
| Sam Reul | 8.1% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 24.3% | 22.6% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Kyle Padgett | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 20.2% | 35.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.