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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+7.85vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.60+6.14vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.93+3.88vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston4.09+2.31vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.53+3.29vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.24+3.84vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.09+3.29vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-0.59vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.16+1.29vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.50-1.55vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.63-2.76vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-3.70vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.39+0.06vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-3.98vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.21-5.18vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.48-7.26vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.17-6.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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8.14Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.88Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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6.31College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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8.29Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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9.84Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
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10.29University of Rhode Island3.090.0%1st Place
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7.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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10.29Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.45Old Dominion University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Naval Academy3.630.1%1st Place
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8.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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13.06Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.82Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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8.74Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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10.07Stanford University3.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lomax | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Shawn Harvey | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% |
| Ravi Parent | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% |
| Dakota Northrup | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Roberto Stevens | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Jeremy Herrin | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| Gary Prieto | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% |
| Charles Miller | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 32.5% |
| Mack Fox | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.8% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.