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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+4.95vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.89+7.44vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.22+5.11vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.40+7.48vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.20+3.08vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.05+3.01vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.59-0.25vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.19+0.12vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.20-0.52vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.24-2.07vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-0.16vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-4.47vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-1.39vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.70-3.51vs Predicted
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15Boston University2.97-5.84vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island2.76-5.89vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.81-7.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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11.48Fordham University2.400.0%1st Place
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8.08Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.01Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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6.75Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.12Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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8.48Brown University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.93Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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7.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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11.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.700.0%1st Place
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9.16Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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10.11University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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9.91Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 12.6% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| Peter Hogan | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Tucker Hersam | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 15.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| Casey Klingler | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Jack Parkin | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Duncan Williford | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Lindsey Baab | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 12.4% |
| Trevor Long | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Shane Riera | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% |
| Robby Gearon | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% |
| Brendan Read | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| Carter Pemberton | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.