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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.24+7.00vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.75+4.11vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+8.50vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.22+4.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.70+5.23vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.59+1.00vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.20+1.44vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.89+1.41vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.76+1.51vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.16-1.60vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.81-0.81vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.97-2.67vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.05-3.88vs Predicted
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14Harvard University3.20-5.46vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.19-6.59vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.37-8.27vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.40-5.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.0Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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6.11College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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11.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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8.38U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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10.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.700.0%1st Place
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7.0Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
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8.44Brown University3.200.1%1st Place
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9.41Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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10.51University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.160.1%1st Place
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10.19Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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9.33Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.12Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.54Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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8.41Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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7.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.370.1%1st Place
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11.71Fordham University2.400.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Holley | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Augie Dale | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 18.6% |
| Peter Hogan | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% |
| Shane Riera | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% |
| Jack Parkin | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Lindsey Baab | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% |
| Brendan Read | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Carrson Pearce | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% |
| Casey Klingler | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| Duncan Williford | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% |
| Trevor Long | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Tucker Hersam | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 17.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.