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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+4.66vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.20+5.82vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.19+4.99vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.05+4.55vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.70+4.77vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.24+1.95vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.81+2.47vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.91+0.91vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+2.34vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.22-2.24vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.89-1.63vs Predicted
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12Harvard University3.20-4.08vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.06-0.48vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.40-2.68vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.76-5.31vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.59-5.54vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.59-10.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.82Brown University3.200.1%1st Place
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7.99Dartmouth College3.190.1%1st Place
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8.55Yale University3.050.1%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.700.0%1st Place
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7.95Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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9.47Connecticut College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.91Boston University2.910.1%1st Place
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11.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.0%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Naval Academy3.220.1%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University2.890.1%1st Place
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7.92Harvard University3.200.1%1st Place
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12.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.060.0%1st Place
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11.32Fordham University2.400.0%1st Place
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9.69University of Rhode Island2.760.0%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.590.0%1st Place
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6.51Stanford University3.590.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 14.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lindsey Baab | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Duncan Williford | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| Casey Klingler | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% |
| Shane Riera | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% |
| Cameron Holley | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Carter Pemberton | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Josh Dochoda | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.8% |
| Peter Hogan | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Jack Elkin | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 4.3% |
| Nicholas Karnovsky | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Hennessey | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 24.7% |
| Tucker Hersam | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 14.6% |
| Brendan Read | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% |
| Ryan Hunter | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% |
| Jack Parkin | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.