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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.66+4.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+1.03vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.18+1.07vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.72+4.43vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.37+4.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.56+3.28vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.80+1.05vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.33-4.31vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.52+0.06vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.09+1.56vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.12-0.40vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.92+2.72vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.65+4.17vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.13-3.34vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.10+0.12vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-4.41vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.66+0.09vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.53-1.03vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.63-5.41vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-5.20vs Predicted
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21University of California at Berkeley-1.43-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.4University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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3.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.3%1st Place
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4.07University of Southern California2.180.1%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.0%1st Place
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9.82University of California at Berkeley0.370.0%1st Place
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9.28University of California at Santa Barbara0.560.0%1st Place
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8.05University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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3.69University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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11.56University of California at Los Angeles-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Santa Cruz0.120.0%1st Place
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14.72University of California at Irvine-0.920.0%1st Place
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17.17University of California at Irvine-1.650.0%1st Place
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10.66University of California at Davis0.130.0%1st Place
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15.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.100.0%1st Place
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11.59University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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17.09University of California at San Diego-1.660.0%1st Place
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16.97University of California at San Diego-1.530.0%1st Place
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13.59Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.630.0%1st Place
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14.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.950.0%1st Place
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16.27University of California at Berkeley-1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Hayes | 10.6% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 25.8% | 22.5% | 18.4% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 15.0% | 15.5% | 15.9% | 15.2% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Jawetz | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josefina Ruggieri | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Holbrook | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Wagner | 19.8% | 19.0% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ankit Rastogi | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Alexis Miller | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Christian Parizea | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 5.3% |
| Brian Newcomer | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 16.4% | 22.2% |
| Jayden Potter | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Lozovoy | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Stephen O'Loughlin | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 15.7% | 22.6% |
| Robert Ketchum | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 16.9% | 19.1% |
| Sean Leddy | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Nick Bonafede | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 5.3% |
| Preston Weber | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.