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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+1.98vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.18+2.09vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.56+5.98vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.66+1.33vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.33-1.16vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.52+3.25vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.80+0.97vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.72+0.25vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.53+7.66vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.12+0.70vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.37-1.50vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95+2.77vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.19-1.06vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.63-0.49vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.10-3.72vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-1.65+1.01vs Predicted
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17University of California at Irvine-0.92-2.42vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.09-6.34vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley-1.43-2.52vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.66-2.86vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.10-5.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.3%1st Place
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4.09University of Southern California2.180.2%1st Place
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8.98University of California at Santa Barbara0.560.0%1st Place
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5.33University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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3.84University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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7.97University of California at San Diego0.800.0%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.0%1st Place
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16.66University of California at San Diego-1.530.0%1st Place
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10.7University of California at Santa Cruz0.120.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Berkeley0.370.0%1st Place
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14.77Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.950.0%1st Place
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11.94University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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13.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.630.0%1st Place
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11.28University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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17.01University of California at Irvine-1.650.0%1st Place
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14.58University of California at Irvine-0.920.0%1st Place
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11.66University of California at Los Angeles-0.090.0%1st Place
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16.48University of California at Berkeley-1.430.0%1st Place
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17.14University of California at San Diego-1.660.0%1st Place
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15.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 27.4% | 23.1% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 16.8% | 14.7% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Holbrook | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Hayes | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Wagner | 17.0% | 18.0% | 18.3% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Erika Barth | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Jawetz | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ketchum | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 18.2% |
| Alexis Miller | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Josefina Ruggieri | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nick Bonafede | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% |
| James Letchinger | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Sean Leddy | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Brian Newcomer | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 21.2% |
| Christian Parizea | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% |
| Ankit Rastogi | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Preston Weber | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 16.0% |
| Stephen O'Loughlin | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 16.5% | 22.7% |
| Andrew Lozovoy | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.