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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+2.05vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.18+2.13vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California2.33+0.74vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.37+5.89vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95+10.11vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.66-0.44vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara0.56+2.04vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.80+0.16vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.52+0.21vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.10+0.81vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara0.72-3.54vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.03+2.47vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.63+0.02vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.09-3.29vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-1.43+0.59vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.19-4.86vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine-1.65-0.56vs Predicted
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19University of California at Santa Cruz0.12-7.93vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-0.60-6.15vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.10-5.31vs Predicted
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22University of California at Irvine-0.92-7.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.05University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.3%1st Place
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4.13University of Southern California2.180.2%1st Place
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3.74University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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9.89University of California at Berkeley0.370.0%1st Place
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15.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.950.0%1st Place
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5.56University of California at Berkeley1.660.1%1st Place
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9.04University of California at Santa Barbara0.560.0%1st Place
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8.16University of California at San Diego0.800.1%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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11.81University of California at Los Angeles-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Santa Barbara0.720.0%1st Place
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15.47University of California at San Diego-1.030.0%1st Place
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14.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.630.0%1st Place
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11.71University of California at Los Angeles-0.090.0%1st Place
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16.59University of California at Berkeley-1.430.0%1st Place
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12.14University of California at Davis-0.190.0%1st Place
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17.44University of California at Irvine-1.650.0%1st Place
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11.07University of California at Santa Cruz0.120.0%1st Place
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13.85University of California at San Diego-0.600.0%1st Place
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15.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.100.0%1st Place
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14.84University of California at Irvine-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pierce | 27.4% | 20.9% | 18.2% | 12.4% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Stefanoni | 15.8% | 17.3% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Wagner | 17.9% | 17.1% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josefina Ruggieri | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nick Bonafede | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.3% |
| Drake Hayes | 7.8% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Holbrook | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Kuhn | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Sean Jawetz | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.1% |
| Sean Leddy | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
| Ankit Rastogi | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Preston Weber | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 20.1% |
| James Letchinger | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Brian Newcomer | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 29.6% |
| Alexis Miller | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Marie-Laure Golier | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.7% |
| Andrew Lozovoy | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.1% |
| Christian Parizea | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.