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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.57+4.51vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.64+6.19vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine1.06+4.02vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-0.98vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.75+0.25vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+1.81vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California2.33-3.23vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.61+0.48vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.92-1.53vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.00+0.30vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.11-0.41vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-5.83vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.75-0.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-3.52vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-1.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.51University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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8.19University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Irvine1.060.1%1st Place
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3.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.3%1st Place
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5.25University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
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3.77University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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8.48University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.47University of California at Los Angeles0.920.0%1st Place
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10.3San Diego State University-0.000.0%1st Place
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10.59University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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6.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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12.25University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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10.48University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| Brian MacLean | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Sterling Henken | 27.8% | 22.3% | 16.5% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Peter Wong | 18.5% | 19.0% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Leah Ford | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Rall | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 4.7% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 14.9% | 7.7% |
| Liam Hood | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 14.8% | 28.2% | 20.8% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 5.3% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 15.7% | 59.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.