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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.33+2.57vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+0.79vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.75+1.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+3.45vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine1.06+1.87vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.64+2.06vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.14vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.11+2.11vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.57-3.61vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.64+1.49vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-0.04vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-6.07vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-2.75vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.75-2.31vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.57University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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2.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.3%1st Place
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4.86University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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7.45University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
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6.87University of California at Irvine1.060.1%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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10.11University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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5.39University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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11.49San Diego State University-0.640.0%1st Place
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10.96University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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5.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.69University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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13.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Wong | 21.6% | 18.6% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 30.6% | 23.4% | 15.9% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 10.4% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 3.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Brian MacLean | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Leah Ford | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 10.1% | 4.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 7.8% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gabriel Marra | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 9.8% |
| Liam Hood | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 5.2% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 20.9% | 14.6% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 53.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.