← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.01vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.75+3.17vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Berkeley0.64+5.40vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California2.33-0.17vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+2.95vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley1.57-0.21vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71+6.70vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.86vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09+1.57vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Irvine1.06-2.70vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles1.43-4.81vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego-0.11-1.21vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles0.61-4.23vs Predicted
-
14San Diego State University-0.00-3.66vs Predicted
-
15University of California at San Diego-0.75-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.01University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.3%1st Place
-
5.17University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
-
8.4University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
-
3.83University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
-
7.95University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
-
5.79University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
-
13.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
-
6.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
-
10.57University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
-
7.3University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
-
6.19University of California at Los Angeles1.430.1%1st Place
-
10.79University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
-
8.77University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
-
10.34San Diego State University-0.000.0%1st Place
-
12.08University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 27.1% | 24.6% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 10.4% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Peter Wong | 19.1% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 62.8% |
| Liam Hood | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 5.1% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 7.5% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| Thomas Rall | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 16.6% | 13.3% | 4.2% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 14.9% | 26.3% | 19.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.