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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+2.03vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.75+3.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+4.81vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.64+4.49vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.33-1.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.57-0.22vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.43-0.89vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-1.90vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71+4.82vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.06-2.68vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.11-0.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-1.19vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.61-4.28vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.75-1.91vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.00-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.3%1st Place
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5.15University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
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8.49University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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3.88University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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5.78University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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6.11University of California at Los Angeles1.430.1%1st Place
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6.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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13.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
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7.32University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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10.59University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.81University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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12.09University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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10.29San Diego State University-0.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 28.6% | 23.0% | 16.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 10.4% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Peter Wong | 17.2% | 17.6% | 15.8% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Liam Hood | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 61.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 7.4% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 15.8% | 16.8% | 6.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 26.5% | 18.2% |
| Thomas Rall | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.