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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.95vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.75+2.99vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.57+2.49vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara0.83+3.57vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.64+6.44vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.33-2.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.64+1.10vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06-1.00vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-3.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.43-3.98vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.11-0.75vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.44-0.79vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.75-1.07vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-3.90vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71-1.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.3%1st Place
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4.99University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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5.49University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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7.57University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
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11.44San Diego State University-0.640.0%1st Place
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3.67University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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8.1University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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7.0University of California at Irvine1.060.1%1st Place
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5.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Los Angeles1.430.1%1st Place
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10.25University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Los Angeles-0.440.0%1st Place
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11.93University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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13.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 29.8% | 22.2% | 16.1% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 9.8% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 9.8% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Marra | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 17.3% | 19.2% | 12.5% |
| Peter Wong | 16.8% | 20.1% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Brian MacLean | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Liam Hood | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 6.1% |
| Ben Gerber | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 8.2% |
| Daniel Vick | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 16.3% | 22.3% | 17.0% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 3.5% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 16.7% | 51.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.