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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.95vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.75+3.03vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+2.90vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33-0.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.57+0.71vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+2.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.92+0.48vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara0.83-0.19vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.64-0.67vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine1.06-2.79vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.09-0.49vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.75+0.34vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.71+0.84vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.11-3.55vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.00-4.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.3%1st Place
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5.03University of Southern California1.750.1%1st Place
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5.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.450.1%1st Place
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3.72University of Southern California2.330.2%1st Place
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5.71University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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8.52University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
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8.33University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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10.51University of California at Santa Cruz-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.34University of California at San Diego-0.750.0%1st Place
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13.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.710.0%1st Place
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10.45University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.21San Diego State University-0.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 28.6% | 24.2% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Alexander | 10.2% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Hood | 8.4% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 18.9% | 18.4% | 16.8% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| Leah Ford | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Vincent Todosiev | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Brian MacLean | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Julian Weiswasser | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Daniel Vick | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 30.5% | 18.7% |
| Conor Kuzmack | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 14.2% | 63.2% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 13.9% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Rall | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.