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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.93vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.80vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.72+0.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.53+0.26vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.45+4.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley1.02-0.65vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04+1.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93+2.44vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.21-0.54vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.09-1.74vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.65+1.26vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.99-1.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.44-1.07vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27-2.70vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.93University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.8University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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3.84University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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4.26University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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9.21University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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5.35University of California at Berkeley1.020.0%1st Place
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8.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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10.44University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.26University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
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10.84San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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11.93University of California at Los Angeles-1.440.0%1st Place
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11.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 49.5% | 25.7% | 13.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 12.2% | 18.7% | 19.4% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 13.1% | 14.8% | 19.2% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 9.7% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 15.6% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Cole Fargo | 4.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 17.5% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eliot Briefer | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 7.2% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 31.4% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 10.3% |
| Zoe Hessler | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 24.1% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 5.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.