← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
80.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.94vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.72+1.77vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.72+0.82vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara1.53+0.25vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Berkeley1.02+0.37vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley-0.21+2.55vs Predicted
-
7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04+0.98vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego-0.45+1.13vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93+1.47vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Irvine-0.09-1.79vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University-0.99-0.33vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Los Angeles-0.81-1.63vs Predicted
-
13University of California at San Diego-1.65-0.58vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Los Angeles-1.44-2.27vs Predicted
-
15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.94University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
-
3.77University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
-
3.82University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
-
4.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
-
5.37University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
-
8.55University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
-
7.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
-
9.13University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
-
10.47University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
-
8.21University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
-
10.67San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
-
10.37University of California at Los Angeles-0.810.0%1st Place
-
12.42University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
-
11.73University of California at Los Angeles-1.440.0%1st Place
-
11.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 48.6% | 26.2% | 14.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 11.6% | 19.5% | 18.8% | 17.5% | 14.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 12.6% | 14.8% | 21.4% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 9.1% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Eliot Briefer | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Francine Brownell | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 7.1% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Sarah Macpherson | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.0% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 18.9% | 31.5% |
| Zoe Hessler | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 17.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.