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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.94vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+1.87vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.72+0.95vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.02+1.53vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.53-0.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.06+2.44vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.99+3.86vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.94+2.77vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.04-0.72vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.45-0.48vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.21-2.21vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.93-1.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.09-4.40vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.27-2.35vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.65-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.94University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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3.87University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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3.95University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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4.4University of California at Santa Barbara1.530.1%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Los Angeles-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.86San Diego State University-0.990.0%1st Place
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10.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.940.0%1st Place
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8.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.040.0%1st Place
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9.52University of California at San Diego-0.450.0%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Berkeley-0.210.0%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Santa Cruz-0.930.0%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Irvine-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.65Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.270.0%1st Place
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12.42University of California at San Diego-1.650.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Stapleton | 49.0% | 26.4% | 13.4% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 12.1% | 19.1% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 13.9% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 12.2% | 15.1% | 19.9% | 16.5% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 5.1% | 8.7% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rory McClish | 10.6% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 16.1% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Picus | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Megan McGlothlin | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 15.3% | 11.5% |
| Thomas Garcia | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Eliot Briefer | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Casey Bowers-Loeffler | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Olivia MacDonald | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Francine Brownell | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 11.4% |
| Drake Baldwin | 1.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Stewart | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 21.0% |
| Jason Nideffer | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 18.2% | 34.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.